Tuesday, September 23, 2014

Global CO2 emissions will be over 40 billion tonnes in 2014 and are 58% higher than in 1990 which is the base year of the Kyoto Protocol

Carbon dioxide emissions, the main contributor to global warming, are set to rise 2.5% in 2014 - reaching a record high of 40 billion tonnes.

Key facts and figures:

* CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuel are projected to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2014 - 65 per cent above 1990 levels, the reference year for the Kyoto Protocol - China, the USA, the EU and India are the largest emitters – together accounting for 58 per cent of emissions.

* China’s CO2 emissions grew by 4.2 per cent in 2013, the USA’s grew by 2.9 per cent, and India’s emissions grew by 5.1 per cent.

* The EU has decreased its emissions by 1.8 per cent, though it continues to export a third of its emissions to China and other producers through imported goods and services.

* China’s CO2 emissions per person overtook emissions in the EU for the first time in 2013. China’s emissions are now larger than the US and EU combined. 16 per cent of China’s emissions are for goods and services which are exported elsewhere.

*CO2 emissions are caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, as well as by cement production and deforestation. Deforestation accounts for 8 per cent of CO2 emissions.

* Historical and future CO2 emissions must remain below a total 3,200 billion tonnes to be in with a 66 per cent chance of keeping climate change below 2°C. But two thirds (2,000 billion tonnes) of this quota have already been used.



Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 2.3% in 2013, with a total of 9.9±0.5 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon) (36 GtCO2) emitted to the atmosphere, 61% above 1990 emissions (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.5% in 2014. In 2013, the ocean and land carbon sinks respectively removed 27% and 23% of total CO2 (fossil fuel and land use change), leaving 50% of emissions into the atmosphere. The ocean sink in 2013 was 2.9±0.5 GtC, slightly above the 2004-2013 average of 2.6±0.5, and the land sink was 2.5±0.9 GtC slightly below the 2004-2013 average of 2.9±0.8. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2013 were 390±20 GtC from fossil fuels and cement, and 145± 50 from land use change. The total of 535±55GtC was partitioned among the atmosphere (225±5 GtC), ocean (150±20 GtC), and the land (155±60 GtC).

The growth of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2013 was 3.3%. The fossil fuel carbon intensity of the economy declined (improved) by -1.0%yr-1. The 2014 projection of 2.5% growth is based on the world GDP projection of 3.3% made by the International Monetary Fund and our estimate of improvements in the fossil intensity of the economy of -0.7%.

In 2013, global CO2 emissions were dominated by emissions from China (28%), the USA (14%), the EU (28 member states; 10%) and India (7%). Growth rates of these countries from 2012 to 2013 were 4.2% for China, 2.9% for the USA, −1.8% for the EU28, and 5.1% for India. The per-capita CO2 emissions in 2013 were 1.4 tonnes of carbon person-1yr-1 (5.1 tCO2) for the globe, 4.5 (16.4 tCO2) for the USA, 2.0 (7.2 tCO2) for China, 1.9 (6.8 tCO2) for the EU28, and 0.5 (1.9 tCO2) for India.

Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 2004-2013, about 44% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 30% on land. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown in response to the increasing emissions, although year-to-year variability of that growth is large.

The ocean sink is estimated by using observations for the period 1990-2000, and an ensemble of seven global ocean biogeochemistry models for the trend and variability. The models were normalized to the observed mean ocean sinks for the 1990s. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition, three observation-based estimates of the ocean sink were used to provide a qualitative assessment of confidence. In 2013 the ocean sink is estimated to have removed 29% of total (fossil fuel plus net land-use change) CO2 emissions.

The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus the sum of the atmosphere and ocean sinks. An independent estimate of the consistency of the residual land sink is obtained by estimating the land sink from 10 dynamic global vegetation models. In 2013 the land sink is estimated to have removed 23% of total (fossil fuel plus net land use change) CO2 emissions.

China released its climate change goals for 2020

China has pledged to reduce its carbon emission intensity, namely emissions per unit of GDP, by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020 from the 2005 level. It will also aim to bring the proportion of non-fossil fuels to about 15 percent of its total primary energy consumption. By the end of last year, China had reduced carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 28.56 percent from 2005, which was equivalent to saving the world 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, Xie said.

NBF - China is targeting to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 12-17%. If China increases GDP by 7% per year then GDP would increase by 50% from 2015 to 2020. Achieving 17% reduction would still mean 33% more emissions or about 4 billion tons of carbon or 14.7 billion tons of CO2. CO2 weighs 3.67 time more than carbon. 

At the end of 2013, China's consumption ratio of non-fossil energy to primary energy stood at 9.8 percent. Forest growing stock had increased by 1.3 trillion cubic meters from 2005 to two trillion cubic meters, seven years ahead of schedule, according to the official.

In the first nine months of 2014, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 4.2 percent year on year and carbon intensity was cut by about 5 percent, both representing the largest drops in years, he said.

Other targets include increasing forest coverage by 40 million hectares within the next five years.


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U.S., Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and the United Arab Emirates hit ISIS in Syria

The U.S. and five Arab countries launched airstrikes Monday night on Islamic State group targets in Syria, expanding a military campaign into a country whose three-year civil war has given the brutal militant group a safe haven.

Using a mix of manned aircraft — fighter jets and bombers — plus Tomahawk cruise missiles, the strikes were part of the expanded military campaign that President Barack Obama authorized nearly two weeks ago in order to disrupt and destroy the Islamic State militants, who have slaughtered thousands of people, beheaded Westerners — including two American journalists — and captured large swaths of Syria and northern and western Iraq.



U.S. officials said the airstrikes began around 8:30 p.m. EDT, and were conducted by the U.S., Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the United Arab Emirates. The first wave of strikes finished about 90 minutes later, but the operation was expected to continue for several more hour


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Carnival of Nuclear Energy 227

The Carnival of Nuclear Energy 227 is up at Hiroshima Syndrome


Forbes James Conca - First American Nuke Plant In 21st Century To Open Soon

Tennessee Valley Authority’s Watts Bar 2 Nuclear Generating Station is in the final phase of construction in preparation for its start-up next year. Watts Bar 2 will be the first nuclear power plant to come online in the U.S. in this century, the first of five commercial nuclear reactors under construction. It is expected to produce over 700 billion kWhs of extremely low-carbon electricity over its life, at an actual cost of only 6 ¢ per kWhr.




Nextbigfuture - Batteries play an important role in everyday life. Scientists and technology. companies constantly are seeking ways to improve battery life and efficiency. Now, for the first time using a water-based solution, researchers at the University of Missouri have created a long-lasting and more efficient nuclear battery that could be used for many applications such as a reliable energy source in complicated applications such as space flight and military applications.

The battery uses a radioactive isotope called strontium-90 that boosts electrochemcial energy in a water-based solution. A nanostructured titanium dioxide electrode (the common element found in sunscreens and UV blockers) with a platinum coating collects and effectively converts energy into electrons.


Nextbigfuture - Two UAE reactors should be operational by 2020 and Saudi Arabia could complete twelve nuclear reactors from 2022-2034




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Monday, September 22, 2014

Telomerase, even when present, can be turned off with a genetic switch which could be an anti aging breakthrough

Scientists at the Salk Institute have discovered an on-and-off “switch” in cells that may hold the key to healthy aging. This switch points to a way to encourage healthy cells to keep dividing and generating, for example, new lung or liver tissue, even in old age.

In our bodies, newly divided cells constantly replenish lungs, skin, liver and other organs. However, most human cells cannot divide indefinitely–with each division, a cellular timekeeper at the ends of chromosomes shortens. When this timekeeper, called a telomere, becomes too short, cells can no longer divide, causing organs and tissues to degenerate, as often happens in old age. But there is a way around this countdown: some cells produce an enzyme called telomerase, which rebuilds telomeres and allows cells to divide indefinitely.

Scientists at the Salk Institute have discovered that telomerase, even when present, can be turned off.

Genes and Development Journal - Regulated assembly and disassembly of the yeast telomerase quaternary complex



“Previous studies had suggested that once assembled, telomerase is available whenever it is needed,” says senior author Vicki Lundblad, professor and holder of Salk’s Ralph S. and Becky O'Connor Chair. “We were surprised to discover instead that telomerase has what is in essence an ‘off’ switch, whereby it disassembles.”

Understanding how this “off” switch can be manipulated–thereby slowing down the telomere shortening process–could lead to treatments for diseases of aging (for example, regenerating vital organs later in life).

Lundblad and first author and graduate student Timothy Tucey conducted their studies in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae, the same yeast used to make wine and bread. Previously, Lundblad’s group used this simple single-celled organism to reveal numerous insights about telomerase and lay the groundwork for guiding similar findings in human cells.

“We wanted to be able to study each component of the telomerase complex but that turned out to not be a simple task,” Tucey said. Tucey developed a strategy that allowed him to observe each component during cell growth and division at very high resolution, leading to an unanticipated set of discoveries into how–and when–this telomere-dedicated machine puts itself together.

Every time a cell divides, its entire genome must be duplicated. While this duplication is going on, Tucey discovered that telomerase sits poised as a “preassembly” complex, missing a critical molecular subunit. But when the genome has been fully duplicated, the missing subunit joins its companions to form a complete, fully active telomerase complex, at which point telomerase can replenish the ends of eroding chromosomes and ensure robust cell division.

Surprisingly, however, Tucey and Lundblad showed that immediately after the full telomerase complex has been assembled, it rapidly disassembles to form an inactive “disassembly” complex — essentially flipping the switch into the “off” position. They speculate that this disassembly pathway may provide a means of keeping telomerase at exceptionally low levels inside the cell. Although eroding telomeres in normal cells can contribute to the aging process, cancer cells, in contrast, rely on elevated telomerase levels to ensure unregulated cell growth. The “off” switch discovered by Tucey and Lundblad may help keep telomerase activity below this threshold.

Abstract - Regulated assembly and disassembly of the yeast telomerase quaternary complex

The enzyme telomerase, which elongates chromosome termini, is a critical factor in determining long-term cellular proliferation and tissue renewal. Hence, even small differences in telomerase levels can have substantial consequences for human health. In budding yeast, telomerase consists of the catalytic Est2 protein and two regulatory subunits (Est1 and Est3) in association with the TLC1 RNA, with each of the four subunits essential for in vivo telomerase function. We show here that a hierarchy of assembly and disassembly results in limiting amounts of the quaternary complex late in the cell cycle, following completion of DNA replication. The assembly pathway, which is driven by interaction of the Est3 telomerase subunit with a previously formed Est1–TLC1–Est2 preassembly complex, is highly regulated, involving Est3-binding sites on both Est2 and Est1 as well as an interface on Est3 itself that functions as a toggle switch. Telomerase subsequently disassembles by a mechanistically distinct pathway due to dissociation of the catalytic subunit from the complex in every cell cycle. The balance between the assembly and disassembly pathways, which dictate the levels of the active holoenzyme in the cell, reveals a novel mechanism by which telomerase (and hence telomere homeostasis) is regulated.

19 Pages of Supplemental Material

Sources: Salk Institute for Biological Studies, Genes and Development journal

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Friday, September 19, 2014

John Bongaarts at the Population Council thinks Climate Change has a good chance of limiting human Population but he is wrong

According to the new analysis by researchers at the United Nations and several academic institutions, there is an 80 percent chance that the world’s population, now 7.2 billion, won’t stop at nine billion in 2050, but will instead be between 9.6 billion and 12.3 billion by 2100. The researchers increased their estimates after noting persistent high birth rates and faster-than-expected progress in combatting HIV/AIDS in Africa. [Journal Science - World population stabilization unlikely this century]

Technology Review David Talbot says the prediction’s reliability is debatable, given that it does not take into account future hardships a large population would likely face. It doesn’t take into account the effects of climate change, food shortages, disease, or conflict. The study take into account that population growth could trigger deadly calamities like food shortages, war, and disease even without climate change, says John Bongaarts, vice president and distinguished scholar at the Population Council, a think tank and research organization based in New York City.

Wolfgang Lutz, director of the Vienna Institute of Demography, says, his newest analysis still suggests a less-dire outcome. “Our most likely scenario comes out somewhat lower than the current United Nations projections,” and suggests population will peak at 9.4 billion around 2070 and start a slow decline to nine billion by the end of the century.

So Lutz at the Vienna Demography Institute calls a human population rising to 12 billion in 2100 a dire outcome. It would be dire if wars, food shortages, disease and climate change do not limit population ? Or if Africa does not see vastly increased usage of birth control ?



Birth rates are suppressed during big wars but studies show that there is an increase in birth rates after the war and population levels recover.


Birth rates and populations also bounce back after famines.

Bongaarts seems to be hoping or expecting permanent wars and famines.

Africa has more wars and famines than other places in the world. This is one of the reasons that the birth rates stay high. People are worried that they will lose children. So they have 5-6 kids hoping that 2-3 will survive. When survival rates are good then birth rates are low. A lot of wars and famine and hardship means that people will have more kids and not less and population will be higher. There would have to be a complete global collapse for the population to drop and stay down. Bongaarts underestimates what people can do.

Large scale fish farming and ocean management (iron fertilization of the ocean to boost fish).
Bongaarts does not realize that all of the CO2 emissions and climate effects are side effects of our civilization. This is happening without that as a goal. Of course the technology exists and can be developed for changing the climate and the oceans to what we want. It is about getting the most economic and efficient solutions.

Ocean Acidification can be mitigated

Climate change can be mitigated.

Correcting soot pollution is 20 times cheaper than fixing the CO2

The World can support one hundred billion living at western levels and expected improvements in agriculture, energy and water can easily handle 15-20 billion by 2100.


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First Water-Based Nuclear Battery Can Be Used to Generate Electricity for decades with betavoltaics breakthrough

From cell phones to cars and flashlights, batteries play an important role in everyday life. Scientists and technology. companies constantly are seeking ways to improve battery life and efficiency. Now, for the first time using a water-based solution, researchers at the University of Missouri have created a long-lasting and more efficient nuclear battery that could be used for many applications such as a reliable energy source in automobiles and also in complicated applications such as space flight.

The battery uses a radioactive isotope called strontium-90 that boosts electrochemcial energy in a water-based solution. A nanostructured titanium dioxide electrode (the common element found in sunscreens and UV blockers) with a platinum coating collects and effectively converts energy into electrons.

“Water acts as a buffer and surface plasmons created in the device turned out to be very useful in increasing its efficiency,” Kwon said. “The ionic solution is not easily frozen at very low temperatures and could work in a wide variety of applications including car batteries and, if packaged properly, perhaps spacecraft.”

The maximum energy conversion efficiency of the MU battery was approximately estimated to be 53.88%. This is an astonishing number for a first trial design. Strontium 90 has a half life of 28.79 years



H/T to New Energy and Fuel

Nature Scientific Reports - Plasmon-assisted radiolytic energy conversion in aqueous solutions


ABSTRACT

The field of conventional energy conversion using radioisotopes has almost exclusively focused on solid-state materials. Herein, we demonstrate that liquids can be an excellent media for effective energy conversion from radioisotopes. We also show that free radicals in liquid, which are continuously generated by beta radiation, can be utilized for electrical energy generation. Under beta radiation, surface plasmon obtained by the metallic nanoporous structures on TiO2 enhanced the radiolytic conversion via the efficient energy transfer between plasmons and free radicals. This work introduces a new route for the development of next-generation power sources.


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Optimizing performance and working around limitation of Dwave Quantum Annealing Computers

Discrete optimization using quantum annealing on sparse Ising models

This paper discusses techniques for solving discrete optimization problems using quantum annealing. Practical issues likely to affect the computation include precision limitations, finite temperature, bounded energy range, sparse connectivity, and small numbers of qubits. To address these concerns they propose a way of finding energy representations with large classical gaps between ground and first excited states, efficient algorithms for mapping non-compatible Ising models into the hardware, and the use of decomposition methods for problems that are too large to fit in hardware. They validate the approach by describing experiments with D-Wave quantum hardware for low density parity check decoding with up to 1000 variables.





They have outlined a general approach for coping with intrinsic issues related to the practical use of quantum annealing. To address these issues we proposed methods for finding Ising problem representations that have a large classical gap between ground states and first excited states, practical methods for embedding Ising models that are not compatible with the hardware graph, and decomposition methods to solve problems that are larger than the hardware. As an application of our techniques, we described how we implemented LDPC decoding problems in D-Wave hardware. Our approach has enabled us to solve LDPC decoding problems of up to 1000 variables. The current hardware implementation of QA tested here is roughly as fast as an efficient implementation of simulated annealing, but these results offer the promise of hybrid quantum/classical algorithms that surpass purely classical solution as QA hardware matures.

As future work, they would like to improve upon the scalability of the current method for constructing penalty functions with large gaps. This would allow larger component subproblems and reduce the need for minor embedding between subproblems. Further, the methods they ave described here for finding penalty functions assume an assignment of decision variables to qubits. Different assignment choices lead to different results and different hardware performance. They do not currently have an effective method for this assignment.

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Acidification Mitigation Details and lower cost mitigation in the $1 to 4 per ton CO2 ranges








Limestone mitigation


Presentation by Rau describes the limestone mitigation method



Journal of Geophysical Research - Mitigating the atmospheric CO2 increase and ocean acidification by adding limestone powder to upwelling regions

The feasibility of enhancing the absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere by adding calcium carbonate (CaCO3) powder to the ocean and of partially reversing the acidification of the ocean and the decrease in calcite supersaturation resulting from the absorption of anthropogenic CO2 is investigated. CaCO3 could be added to the surface layer in regions where the depth of the boundary between supersaturated and unsaturated water is relatively shallow (250–500 m) and where the upwelling velocity is large (30–300 m a 1 ). The CaCO3 would dissolve within a few 100 m depth below the saturation horizon, and the dissolution products would enter the mixed layer within a few years to decades, facilitating further absorption of CO2 from the atmosphere. This absorption of CO2 would largely offset the increase in mixed layer pH and carbonate supersaturation resulting from the upwelling of dissolved limestone powder. However, if done on a large scale, the reduction in atmospheric CO2 due to absorption of CO2 by the ocean would reduce the amount of CO2 that needs to be absorbed by the mixed layer, thereby allowing a larger net increase in pH and in supersaturation in the regions receiving CaCO3. At the same time, the reduction in atmospheric pCO2 would cause outgassing of CO2 from ocean regions not subject to addition of CaCO3, thereby increasing the pH and supersaturation in these regions as well. Geographically optimal application of 4 billion t of CaCO3 a 1 (0.48 Gt C a 1 ) could induce absorption of atmospheric CO2 at a rate of 600 Mt CO2 a 1 after 50 years, 900 Mt CO2 a 1 after 100 years, and 1050 Mt CO2 a 1 after 200 years.


Opportunities for Low-Cost CO2 Mitigation in Electricity, Oil, and Cement Production by Rau

Several low-cost opportunities exist for scrubbing CO2 from waste gas streams, utilizing spontaneous chemical reactions in the presence of water and inexpensive or waste alkaline compounds. These reactions convert CO2 to bicarbonate or carbonate in dissolved or solid form, thus providing CO2 capture and low-risk CO2 storage underground, in the ocean, or in some cases on land. Useful by-products and co-benefits can also be generated by these processes. In certain settings this approach will be significantly less energy intensive, less costly, and less risky than "conventional" molecular CO2 capture and geologic storage.

It has been previously shown that industrial-scale accelerated weathering of limestone, AWL, can effectively convert a significant fraction of US CO2 emissions to long-term storage as bicarbonate in the ocean. Being analogous to the successful, wide-spread use of wet limestone to desulfurize flue gas, AWL reactors could be retrofitted to existing power plants at a cost possibly as low as $3-$4 per tonne CO2 mitigated. Such low costs would especially pertain to coastal power plants where an average of 30,000 tonnes of seawater per GWhe are already pumped through for cooling, and where the majority of coastline (at least in the US) is within 400 km of limestone sources.

Capture and Storage Using Water Co-Produced With Oil

On average 10 barrels of water are brought to the surface with each barrel of oil produced, and the majority of this water is simply pumped back into the reservoir. Our preliminary analysis suggests that most of this water is significantly undersaturated in CO2 relative to industrial waste gas streams that are typically 10% to 20% CO2. Furthermore, such waters can contain significant carbonate ion concentrations, meaning they have an enhanced capacity to react with excess CO2 to form dissolved bicarbonates.

While the US capacity of this CO2 mitigation approach is modest (perhaps 2 million tons/yr) and is best suited to treat CO2 waste streams in the immediate vicinity of the water production, the cost of such CO2 mitigation could be extremely low, perhaps less than $1/tonne CO2.

Co-benefits of CO2 addition to produced water would be the reduction (via lowered pH) of internal pipeline scale formation, a common and expensive problem in the industry. Also, CO2 addition could enhance the oil-water separation process, may reduce downstream microbial fouling, and might enhance oil recovery. Further work is needed to better evaluate the cost/benefit and potential market of this CO2 mitigation approach.

Cement Production can be altered to absorb CO2 instead of releasing CO2.

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Google U lab could partner with countries for new more efficient cities

The Information reports in 2013, Google CEO Larry Page convened his direct reports, the company’s dozen or so senior vice presidents, for a project that would take up two days a week for a couple of months. About 100 other employees below the SVP rank also participated in the effort, dubbed Google 2.0.

Google 2.0 has goals in areas ranging from subscription businesses to location services to developing replacements for traditional passwords.

It also setup a second research lab Google Y. Google Y is looking at more efficient airports and cities.




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No Independence for Scotland

BBC News has called the Scotland independence vote for the NO. The vote was 55% No and 45% Yes with 85% of the vote counted.


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Thursday, September 18, 2014

Ocean Acidification $2 million XPrize

The Wendy Schmidt Ocean Health XPRIZE is a $2 million global competition that challenges teams of engineers, scientists and innovators from all over the world to create pH sensor technology that will affordably, accurately and efficiently measure ocean chemistry from its shallowest waters… to its deepest depths.

There are two prize purses available (teams may compete for, and win, both purses):

A. $1,000,000 Accuracy award – Performance focused ($750,000 First Place, $250,000 Second Place): To the teams that navigate the entire competition to produce the most accurate, stable and precise pH sensors under a variety of tests.

B. $1,000,000 Affordability award – Cost and Use focused ($750,000 First Place, $250,000 Second Place): To the teams that produce the least expensive, easy-to-use, accurate, stable, and precise pH sensors under a variety of tests.



The Need for the Prize - The Problem

Our ocean is currently in the midst of a silent crisis. Rising levels of atmospheric carbon are resulting in higher levels of acidity. The potential biological, ecological, biogeochemical and societal implications are staggering. The absorption of human CO2 emissions is already having a profound impact on ocean chemistry, impacting the health of shellfish, fisheries, coral reefs, other ecosystems and our very survival.

The Need for the Prize - The Market Failure

While ocean acidification is well documented in a few temperate ocean waters, little is known in high latitudes, coastal areas and the deep sea, and most current pH sensor technologies are too costly, imprecise, or unstable to allow for sufficient knowledge on the state of ocean acidification.

The Need for the Prize - The Solution

Breakthrough sensors are urgently needed for scientists, managers and industry to turn the tide on ocean acidification and begin healing our ocean. A competition to incentivize the creation of these sensors for the study and monitoring of ocean acidification’s impact on marine ecosystems and ocean health will drive industry forward by providing the data needed to take action and produce results.

The Need for the Prize - Impact

Making a broad impact—one that reaches far beyond new sensing technologies—is critical to the success of the prize. It begins with a breakthrough pH sensor that will catalyze our ability to measure—and thus respond to—ocean acidification.

But the breakthroughs go far beyond this impact:

* Provide tools for the study and monitoring of ocean acidification’s impacts on marine creatures and ecosystems, and thus ocean health
* Catalyze ocean acidification research
* Catalyze the development of the ocean services industry – data, information, forecasting and more for global industry
* Inspire innovations in ocean sensing technology broadly for deployment in many platforms and to effectively monitor the health of the ocean
* Create both tools and support for policymakers and public officials
* Inspire the public to engage in solving ocean acidification

To learn more about the science behind ocean acidification, visit
NOAA’s Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory

For more information on the impacts of ocean acidification on humans and marine life, visit
the NRDC’s website

NRDC has produced a film diving into the causes and consequences of ocean acidification:
http://www.nrdc.org/oceans/acidification/aboutthefilm.asp

For more on what you can do to help, visit the Deeper Dive at Ocean Conservancy:
http://www.oceanconservancy.org/our-work/ocean-acidification/deeper-dive.html

Counter Acting Ocean Acidication

Ten Ways States Can Combat Ocean Acidification (and Why they should) by Ryan P. Kelly* and Margaret R. Caldwell [48 page paper by Stanford researchers]

The ocean is becoming more acidic worldwide as a result of increasing atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide (“CO2”) and other pollutants. This fundamental change is likely to have substantial ecological and economic consequences globally. In this Article, we provide a toolbox for understanding and addressing the drivers of ocean acidification. We begin with an overview of the relevant science, highlighting known causes of chemical change in the coastal ocean. Because of the difficulties associated with controlling diffuse atmospheric pollutants such as CO2, we then focus on controlling smaller-scale agents of acidification, discussing ten legal and policy tools that state government agencies can use to mitigate the problem. This bottom-up approach does not solve the global CO2 problem, but instead offers a more immediate means of addressing the challenges of a rapidly changing ocean. States have ample legal authority to address many of the causes of ocean acidification; what remains is to implement that authority to safeguard our iconic coastal resources.

Mitigating Acidification

Ocean Acidification: Cause, Effect, and Potential Mitigation Approaches by Joanna M. Norton

The accumulation of carbon dioxide in Earth’s atmosphere is mirrored by an increase in dissolved carbonic acid in the oceans. Carbon dioxide dissolves easily into liquid, so the surface layers of the ocean are always in equilibrium with atmospheric pressures of the gas and provide a massive sink. Some of the dissolved carbon dioxide remains as carbonic acid, some breaks down further to form carbonate ion, but most is present in the form of bicarbonate (HCO3-); these are the components of the ocean’s buffering system to guard against pH changes. However, the buffer can be overwhelmed by continued inputs of carbon dioxide and lose its buffering capacity.

1) Sequestering carbon on the ocean floor by fertilizing certain ocean regions with iron, which can be a limiting nutrient in these areas

2) Addition of powdered limestone to ocean water to react with carbon dioxide and form bicarbonate has also been proposed (Rau and Caldiera 1999; Harvey 2007). This would neutralize the acidity of the added carbon dioxide, as well as push the oceanic carbon equation towards carbonic acid and allow for more calcium carbonate to stay undissolved in the shells of marine life. The ocean has a large, untapped ability to hold dissolved bicarbonate, if enough calcium carbonate (limestone) is made available for the reaction (Rau et al 2006). This process would essentially increase the buffering capacity of the ocean, by adding carbonate ion to offset the carbon dioxide absorbed by the ocean. Rau et al (2006) calculate that the ocean could hold enough bicarbonate that all the carbon in existing fossil fuel stores could be sequestered. In fact, this is how past rises in atmospheric carbon were eventually modulated, gradually, over millennia. They suggest accelerated weathering of limestone at locations of CO2 production. Harvey (2007) investigates adding powdered limestone to areas that would carry it in upwelling current. This method could be especially cheap and effective, and no negative side effects have been found, but these issues have not been thoroughly examined.


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Iraq war 3

There will be about 1700 "coalition forces" in Iraq shortly. 1000 American special forces are already there. 600 Australians and 69 Canadians. The Kurds are being armed and Turkey is allowing the use of airbases for the air campaign. There are also US veterans who work with the private military contractors who are in the area (paid for by Iraq and others). CIA and other operatives are in the area.

Australia's elite special forces troops in Iraq will be gathering intelligence and targeting militants, either through ground operations or by directing air strikes, according to a senior defense force insider familiar with the SAS role. The claim runs counter to the impression being given by Prime Minister Tony Abbott, who continued to say on Wednesday that Australian forces would be "military advisers" to Iraqi and Peshmerga fighters and would "not themselves normally engage in actual combat".

Australia has a large anti-terrorism anti-ISIS raid right now that involves 800 policemen.

There are various cases made that the US should ignore ISIS in the middle east and not get back into Iraq and go in to Syria. Leave it Turkey and others in the region. 

Just looking at US politics shows why the US and other nations involvement is going to keep ramping up.
Obama has midterms coming up and needs to look less weak. 
He needs to out coalition build George Bush 1 and George Bush 2.
Iraq still has oil.
The Republicans (other than Rand Paul and some others) are pushing to regain what was won from Iraq War 2.

Nextbigfuture has made the case that after 13 years of war in Afghanistan and Iraq that there is the reasonable expectation that this will continue for many more years. The US needs to adopt a politically and economically sustainable foreign legion model. 




Militarily the US homeland is safe and the threat is limited

Small scale actions could be launched into the US.
However, the New York police department alone has 34500 uniformed officers and a budget of $4.8 billion. 
As we know from Ferguson, the police departments of the United States have a lot of fairly recent military equipment.

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Why it might have been reasonable for the Iraqi soldiers to desert rather than fight Isis and how a foreign legion could help solve it



 Before I made the case that a US foreign legion was apragmatic economic solution for the USA.

Consider now the position of a soldier in Iraqi army.

The final straw was the death of a friend, killed two weeks ago by a sniper’s bullet. The infantryman, Bashar al-Halbousi, deserted, making the same choice as hundreds of other soldiers in his battalion, he said.

“The state is weak,” Mr. Halbousi said. “This will be an endless battle.”

The militants came in waves, sending suicide bombers when their ammunition grew scarce. Mohamed said that eight of his friends had died and that he almost did, too, when a mortar shell struck his Humvee.

After months of grinding conflict against a resurgent militant movement, the Iraqi Army is having its power blunted by a rise in desertions, turning the tide of the war and fragmenting an institution, trained and funded by the United States, that some hoped would provide Iraqis a common sense of citizenship.

In interviews over several days, soldiers and army commanders said the desertions had become widespread, with thousands of men laying down their arms, gutting front-line units across the country. Before the troops dissolved in Mosul, the army was losing as many as 300 soldiers a day, between desertions, deaths and injuries, according to a security analyst who works with the Iraqi government.

Some soldiers said their families begged them to leave the service. One 25-year-old deserter said his mother was so terrified of the fighting that she burned his uniform every time he returned home on leave. Two months ago, he said she raised the stakes, threatening to kill herself if he returned to his unit.

Officers in the Iraqi army were purged of competent leaders and replaced with political cronies of Prime minister Malaki.
You cannot trust there would be a competent leadership and a sustained and resolved campaign to defeat the enemy completely.
The US pulled out years ago and now has stated they will not send soldiers to fight the enemy in Iraq and Syria.
The army could have Sunni sympathizers to Isis who would inform on your identity so you have to think about protecting your family from later reprisals.



If the USA had a dedicated commitment to a foreign legion

If the USA had a commitment to using a 150,000-500,000 strong foreign legion to keep the peace (pax americana) then how could this be different. This would also be different. If the soldiers knew that they were part of long term commitment to bringing peace, stability and prosperity to the region, they would have belief in the cause that were fighting and dieing.

In the french foreign legion, identities are often hidden. Everyone is Jean Paul. It can become tougher for someone to find out who or where your family is.

If there is a long term US commitment to complete victory then there is less concern about reprisals.

If there is faith in the competence and training of the officers then there is discipline and morale when the fighting gets tough.

The USA would have to ensure that there were competent trained officers.

The USA would have to make a lifelong commitment to foreign legionaires in terms of ability to earn pensions and health benefits even if salaries were in the $1500/month range.

The implicit contract would have to be -

have belief in the justness of the cause
dedicate yourselves to us
we will dedicate ourselves to you
we will try to keep you as safe as possible through consistent policy and strong leadership
you will help keep us safe
we will help keep your family safe

we will raise the necessary force to do what must be done
we will vet who is in here and keep it clear of traitors
trust your political leadership will be steady to the cause
trust your military leaders are competent

This 15 to 50 divisions would then have the morale and commitment and staying power to to grind out a multi-year war to clean out Syria and Iraq. They would also have the full backing and close air support of the US air force. They would thus know they were not have an equal ground fight. They could call in an air strike.



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Why air power is not enough to force surrender in simple terms

The Bombing of Dresden was an attack on the city of Dresden, the capital of the German state of Saxony, that took place in the final months of WW2. Between 22,700 and 25,000 people were killed.

However, this and other air campaigns did not force the surrender of Germany. The firebombing of Tokyo which killed over 100,000 did not force the surrender of Japan.

It was capture and killing and disarming of the vast majority of the soldiers and generals and leaders that led to the surrender of Germany.


Operation rolling thunder had over 300,000 attacks but did not force North Vietnam to Surrender

Operation Rolling Thunder was the title of a gradual and sustained US 2nd Air Division (later Seventh Air Force), US Navy, and Republic of Vietnam Air Force (VNAF) aerial bombardment campaign conducted against the Democratic Republic of Vietnam (North Vietnam) from 2 March 1965 until 2 November 1968, during the Vietnam War.

Between March 1965 and November 1968, aircraft of the U.S. Air Force had flown 153,784 attack sorties against North Vietnam, while the Navy and Marine Corps had added another 152,399. On 31 December 1967, the Department of Defense announced that 864,000 tons of American bombs had been dropped on North Vietnam during Rolling Thunder, compared with 653,000 tons dropped during the entire Korean War and 503,000 tons in the Pacific theater during the Second World War.

Approximately 1,000 casualties had been inflicted on the North Vietnamese population per week, or approximately 90,000 for the 44-month period, 72,000 of whom were civilians.



With bombing I am alive or dead

Bombing means that people are left alive (with injuries or without) or dead. Those who are not dead still have their weapons and can fight. The planes are not staying their constantly. 

Bombing can destroy bridges, road, rail and other targets.

If the bombs kill my family then I have nothing left to lose and will continue to fight to avenge them.

If the bombs kill me then I will be stopped but my comrades can continue.

Soldiers can capture, disarm and threaten to kill the civilians

Losing to enemy soldiers means that they gain the military control and can confiscate the weapons, they can find and enter the bunkers and clean them out, they hold a gun to your head or the head of your family and get you to surrender or they will come back and kill you or your family. 

I have killed your toughest, jailed the others and taken your weapons and threaten to slaughter the rest. This forces a surrender. Or the stick or damage is less severe and the carrot is added that surrender and behave and we will also help rebuild your cities.

Why was Hiroshima and Nagasaki different ?

Hiroshima and Nagasaki were not different because the nuclear bombs killed more than the firebombing of Tokyo. They were different because they were the threat that the US will keep killing the Japanese cities until there is surrender. The Firebombing of Tokyo seemed within the realm of something that imperial Japan could continue to function and adapt and endure by hiding in tunnels. 


Published by Brian Wang - 9/18/14

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Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Hello Next Big Future!

Dear loyal NBFers,

Recently, Brian mentioned in a post that he'd like to give Next Big Future a redesign and that part of the redesign would include updating the commenting system. At SolidOpinion we're well aware of how important commenting is to Next Big Future. In fact, commenting may be the most important part of NBF. NBF and the NBF commenting community were part of the inspiration behind the creation of SolidOpinion, so you can imagine how excited we are to work with the NBF community.
We'd like to take an opportunity to introduce ourselves through this post and encourage dialogue as we work to bring you the best possible platform for the site's redesign in the coming week. We've been paying close attention to the discussion around the switch and realize a lot of users have misgivings about switching from Disqus. The concerns that have been voiced thus far have been valid and thoughtful. So, we'd like to take an opportunity to respond to some of the questions users have had about us and talk a bit about how we plan to benefit the NBF community.

Top 10 Community Concerns:
1. Will we lose our old Disqus profiles and comments? (Honk, GoatGuy, Others)
A)  No, NBF users will retain all historical comments and users will have their existing screen names.  Note: At the moment it will be necessary to sign in to SolidOpinion and create a profile in order to comment on the mirror site. Users who choose to do so will have their Disqus comments imported into this profile once the final integration takes place on the main site. Users who do not wish to make a profile will have their screen names and comments automatically carried over as well.
2. Will we have the ability to quickly edit our comments? Why the redacted should it cost points? (Anthropic, GoatGuy, Others)
A)  Comment editing is available, quick, and does not cost points. (Note: we are limiting the impact of the point system)
3. Gamification does not suit the NBF community. Lots of fluff, it's unnecessary. (Uzza, Others)
A)  We have a lot of features and are implementing only those features which will enhance the NBF community. No fluff, we promise.
4. Is it all about ignoring other commenters? Customizing what they see? This is balkanization like cable news. (Publiseur, Others)
A)  The platform is set up so that the highest rated comments and the highest ranking commenters will rise to the top and guide the discussion. SolidOpinion is not a "pick and choose" commenting platform that allows individuals to sort what they see; rather it's a community based pulpit that gives additional exposure to those comments and commenters ranked highest in the community. We have the option for single users to ignore individual commenters but that function will not be present in the NBF integration.  
5. Are you trying to turn us (the commenters) into a revenue stream? (Honk)
A)  Though we are compatible with micro-transactions, that kind of environment does not suit the NBF community. Don’t worry Honk, we’re not going to start digging in your pockets. Instead, we're providing a better revenue generation avenue than Disqus does through targeted ads at the bottom of the page.
6. Monetized micro-transactions look like a scam. (Honk)
A)  Micro-transactions are available, however, they will not be an apparent aspect in the SolidOpinion integration of NBF. No NBF user will EVER be required to make a micro-transaction. We want to employ tools that enhance the community, not detract from it.
7. Acclimate us. Take us on a journey. Don't push us off a cliff. (IKNOW)
A)   We will provide open a/b testing through this mirror site to introduce NBF users to SolidOpinion. This will be a great way for us to internalize your feedback and provide fixes, as well as provide a place for NBF users to experience the comment system before a full integration. We (SolidOpinion) are also here to answer any and all questions or comments, directly.
8. I like the ability to push high-ranking comments to the top. (Anthropic)
A)  So do we. The SolidOpinion system on NBF will be set up to display the highest ranking comments and comments from the highest-ranking users at the top. Users have the ability to grow their rank by earning points through positive participation, thus getting their own comments featured more frequently as an incentive.
9. I like having moderation in place. (Anthropic)
A)  We have a multi tiered moderation approach meaning blacklists for certain vitriolic or offensive words, human moderators, and community moderation ability.
10. No emojis – for the love of God. (Paul451)
A)  Emojis are an optional function and – like all the SolidOpinion functions – can be enabled/disabled by Brian. We will be launching without Emojis.

SolidOpinion benefits we'd like to highlight:
Your input so far has been invaluable and we hope to hear more. In the meantime we'd like to take a moment to highlight a few of the ways our platform will help enhance the NBF community.
  • Reputation building and incentives through the point system.
    • Users gain points in SolidOpinion when they participate. Those points decide a user's rank and higher ranking users (like GoatGuy) are given increased ability and moderation capability.
    • Comments from higher ranking users will be featured more prominently, helping provide direction to the community discourse. Think of it like giving GoatGuy a microphone.
    •  Lesser-ranked commenters have be able to earn increased status and ability by gaining points. This incentivizes positive participation which is good for the community, reduces moderation costs, and rewards NBF’s most influential members for their contributions.
  •  Increased moderation functionality.
    • This cuts costs and keeps the NBF community a safe, accessible place. Better moderation encourages new users to join the conversation and reinforces the contributions of existing members.
  • Functionality that suits the NBF community.
    • We have a lot of functionality. Some functionality works for certain sites and some functions don’t. What we will provide that isn’t currently available on Disqus – yet very applicable to NBF – are things like video and picture embedding in-line and the ability to annotate another user's comment. This provides a cleaner conversation space for those who would like to post videos and pictures while not linking out to another site. This is good for Brian’s traffic and good for the community’s expressive ability.
    •  If there is functionality you don’t like – tell us. If there is functionality you’d like to see – tell us. Unlike Disqus we don’t force a “one size fits all” solution on a community. We’re here to provide tools that help the discussion.
  • Community building support from SolidOpinion.
    • We are the best at what we do – build communities. We use researched-backed methods to help encourage growth based on each individual community’s needs. This is good for Brian, good for NBF users, and good for future NBFers as well.

Thanks for taking the time to read a little about SolidOpinion. We'd like to invite you to continue to visit the MirrorNBF site and comment, as we'll be posting the same content from the main site on this mirror. Please lend us your thoughts, recommendations, and questions about the platform in the comment section of any article and we'll get back to you as soon as possible. Or, reach out by emailing our community developer, Clint at ca@solidopinion.com. We look forward to the dialogue as we work to bring you the best possible comment system in the coming weeks.

Sincerely,
The SolidOpinion Team














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