Buying about $8 trillion of foreign assets and companies will prevent Chinese Yuan from strengthening 5 to 1 until about 2045

According to the most recently published data, in 2011 total deposits held in these institutions by corporations, individuals and other entities amounted to 80.9 trillion yuan ($13.3 trillion)—70% more than China's GDP. (In the U.S. in 2014, M2—consisting of total demand deposits, savings deposits and small time deposits—was 35% less than U.S. GDP).

If and when full yuan convertibility occurs, a significant share of these yuan balances (perhaps 10% or more) will diversify into other foreign assets, especially dollar assets. Buying up foreign assets on a major scale means flooding the market with yuan, putting downward pressure on its value. And as long as China maintains an annual current account surplus—currently about $190 billion—some of it will further boost demand for foreign assets, thereby further weakening the yuan's exchange rate.

These three factors mean that the yuan's value is likely to stabilize toward the lower end of the 16 cents to 20 cents range. That said, so long as China's unusually high savings rate persists—about 40% of GDP compared with less than 10% in the U.S.—so too will large surpluses recur in its current account.

Charles Wolf of Rand Predictions Summarized

HSBC expects yuan to be a top three currency for trade settlement in 2015 and fully convertible by 2018

* Wolf expects China will buy $2 trillion initially in foreign assets (companies, properties etc...) around 2018 with full convertibility

* China will continue to have a surplus and will buy more assets $100-200 billion per year ($1-2 trillion per decade)

It will likely take about 30 years for China's savings rate to get to the 10% range



If Wolf is right then it will be about 2045 before China's yuan strengthens beyond 5 to 1 to the US dollar.

Global CO2 emissions will be over 40 billion tonnes in 2014 and are 58% higher than in 1990 which is the base year of the Kyoto Protocol

Carbon dioxide emissions, the main contributor to global warming, are set to rise 2.5% in 2014 - reaching a record high of 40 billion tonnes.

Key facts and figures:

* CO2 emissions from burning fossil fuel are projected to rise by 2.5 per cent in 2014 - 65 per cent above 1990 levels, the reference year for the Kyoto Protocol - China, the USA, the EU and India are the largest emitters – together accounting for 58 per cent of emissions.

* China’s CO2 emissions grew by 4.2 per cent in 2013, the USA’s grew by 2.9 per cent, and India’s emissions grew by 5.1 per cent.

* The EU has decreased its emissions by 1.8 per cent, though it continues to export a third of its emissions to China and other producers through imported goods and services.

* China’s CO2 emissions per person overtook emissions in the EU for the first time in 2013. China’s emissions are now larger than the US and EU combined. 16 per cent of China’s emissions are for goods and services which are exported elsewhere.

*CO2 emissions are caused primarily by burning fossil fuels, as well as by cement production and deforestation. Deforestation accounts for 8 per cent of CO2 emissions.

* Historical and future CO2 emissions must remain below a total 3,200 billion tonnes to be in with a 66 per cent chance of keeping climate change below 2°C. But two thirds (2,000 billion tonnes) of this quota have already been used.



Carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from fossil fuel burning and cement production increased by 2.3% in 2013, with a total of 9.9±0.5 GtC (billion tonnes of carbon) (36 GtCO2) emitted to the atmosphere, 61% above 1990 emissions (the Kyoto Protocol reference year). Emissions are projected to increase by a further 2.5% in 2014. In 2013, the ocean and land carbon sinks respectively removed 27% and 23% of total CO2 (fossil fuel and land use change), leaving 50% of emissions into the atmosphere. The ocean sink in 2013 was 2.9±0.5 GtC, slightly above the 2004-2013 average of 2.6±0.5, and the land sink was 2.5±0.9 GtC slightly below the 2004-2013 average of 2.9±0.8. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2013 were 390±20 GtC from fossil fuels and cement, and 145± 50 from land use change. The total of 535±55GtC was partitioned among the atmosphere (225±5 GtC), ocean (150±20 GtC), and the land (155±60 GtC).

The growth of the global Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for 2013 was 3.3%. The fossil fuel carbon intensity of the economy declined (improved) by -1.0%yr-1. The 2014 projection of 2.5% growth is based on the world GDP projection of 3.3% made by the International Monetary Fund and our estimate of improvements in the fossil intensity of the economy of -0.7%.

In 2013, global CO2 emissions were dominated by emissions from China (28%), the USA (14%), the EU (28 member states; 10%) and India (7%). Growth rates of these countries from 2012 to 2013 were 4.2% for China, 2.9% for the USA, −1.8% for the EU28, and 5.1% for India. The per-capita CO2 emissions in 2013 were 1.4 tonnes of carbon person-1yr-1 (5.1 tCO2) for the globe, 4.5 (16.4 tCO2) for the USA, 2.0 (7.2 tCO2) for China, 1.9 (6.8 tCO2) for the EU28, and 0.5 (1.9 tCO2) for India.

Of the total emissions from human activities during the period 2004-2013, about 44% accumulated in the atmosphere, 26% in the ocean and 30% on land. During this period, the size of the natural sinks has grown in response to the increasing emissions, although year-to-year variability of that growth is large.

The ocean sink is estimated by using observations for the period 1990-2000, and an ensemble of seven global ocean biogeochemistry models for the trend and variability. The models were normalized to the observed mean ocean sinks for the 1990s. Models were forced with meteorological data from the US national Centers for Environmental Prediction and atmospheric CO2 concentration. In addition, three observation-based estimates of the ocean sink were used to provide a qualitative assessment of confidence. In 2013 the ocean sink is estimated to have removed 29% of total (fossil fuel plus net land-use change) CO2 emissions.

The land sink is calculated as the residual of the sum of all sources minus the sum of the atmosphere and ocean sinks. An independent estimate of the consistency of the residual land sink is obtained by estimating the land sink from 10 dynamic global vegetation models. In 2013 the land sink is estimated to have removed 23% of total (fossil fuel plus net land use change) CO2 emissions.

China released its climate change goals for 2020

China has pledged to reduce its carbon emission intensity, namely emissions per unit of GDP, by 40 percent to 45 percent by 2020 from the 2005 level. It will also aim to bring the proportion of non-fossil fuels to about 15 percent of its total primary energy consumption. By the end of last year, China had reduced carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP by 28.56 percent from 2005, which was equivalent to saving the world 2.5 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions, Xie said.

NBF - China is targeting to reduce emissions per unit of GDP by 12-17%. If China increases GDP by 7% per year then GDP would increase by 50% from 2015 to 2020. Achieving 17% reduction would still mean 33% more emissions or about 4 billion tons of carbon or 14.7 billion tons of CO2. CO2 weighs 3.67 time more than carbon. 

At the end of 2013, China's consumption ratio of non-fossil energy to primary energy stood at 9.8 percent. Forest growing stock had increased by 1.3 trillion cubic meters from 2005 to two trillion cubic meters, seven years ahead of schedule, according to the official.

In the first nine months of 2014, China's energy consumption per unit of GDP dropped by 4.2 percent year on year and carbon intensity was cut by about 5 percent, both representing the largest drops in years, he said.

Other targets include increasing forest coverage by 40 million hectares within the next five years.


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China's TCL announces quantum dot enabled 55 inch OLED TV that will one third the price of comparable OLED TVs

TCL announced a quantum dot enabled 55-inch full-gamut 4K UHD [3840 x 2160] TV with a manufacturer’s suggested retail price at one-third the cost of comparable OLED color televisions. The QD (Quantum Dots) plus LED television shatters the prohibitively high price barrier of OLED TVs which provide consumers with a richer color viewing experience. TCL is the world’s third best-selling television brand, and QD Vision is the leading manufacturer of quantum dot optical components for HDTVs and other LCD products. The new TVs will initially be available in China, followed by additional worldwide availability. Most mainstream LCD TV designs have had to sacrifice color quality, typically only delivering 60-70% of the NTSC color gamut standard. Color IQ is capable of delivering 100% of the NTSC color gamut, and works with all major LCD applications, including LCD TVs, LCD monitors and other displays, providing both superior color performance and high system efficiency. The quantum dot component is mounted in the LCD backlight unit in front of blue LEDs (as opposed to white LEDs used by other manufacturers such as LG), according to Matt Mazzuchi, vice president of market and business development for QD Vision. UHD 55 inch OLED TVs sell for as low as $3,500. This price is still significantly higher than of a comparable 55-inch UHD TV, which sells for around $2,000. TCL has not announced a price but $1200-1500 seems likely based upon the one third the cost of comparable OLED statement. Advancements in LED technology are also producing TVs with improved contrast ratio and colors, making it more difficult for OLED TVs to differentiate and justify their premium price, Gonzalez-Thayer added. IHS predicts that around 14,000 OLED TV units will be shipped in the U.S. this year, and that number will increase to close to 1.2 million units in 2018. According to the latest DisplaySearch report, TCL ranked No.3 in the global LCD TV market share with a 6.8% market share in 2013. TCL is No.1 in the China LCD TV market with a market share of 18.1%. If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

China is driving production of graphene nanoplatelets and carbon nanotubes to the 1500-2000 ton per year level in 2016-2018

[EEtimes] China took the lead in carbon nanotube and graphene research and manufacturing, according to Lux Research, by adding to a global glut market, driving down prices, eroding margins, and likely causing an early shakeout in the fledgling industry. Lux forecasts that the global graphene nanoplatlet and carbon nanotube demand in 2018 stands at 1,520 tons and 2,016 tons, respectively. However, China alone will be enough to feed total global graphene nanoplatlet demand until 2016. The prices of graphene nanoplatlets and carbon nanotubes will continue to drop down once capacity and utilization climb, and the aggressive capacity expansion of Chinese companies will squeeze the profit margins of both nanomaterials. China is funding around $2 billion from 2011 to 2015.

"From 2013 to 2015, assuming both CNano and Timesnano execute on their announced expansion plans to add 500 tons per year and 100 tons per year, respectively, China will increase its share of global capacity from 30% to 50%," Ma tells EE Times. "Both CNano and Timesnano have a cost advantage, well-established customer networks, and continuous funding support. They should be considered as potential commercial partners in China." In graphene, China lags behind, but is working hard to catch up to the US. Ningbo Morsh had 300 tons per year of graphene platelet production in 2013 and has plans to expand to 1000 tons per year. If you liked this article, please give it a quick review on ycombinator or StumbleUpon. Thanks

International Energy Agency Global Renewable Energy Forecast to 2020

In 2013, global renewable electricity generation rose by a n estimated 240 terawatt hours (TWh) (+5.0% year-on-year) to reach nearly 5 070 TWh and accounted for almost 22% of total power generation. The expansion was somewhat slower than that predicted in the Medium-Term Renewable Energy Market Report 2013 (MTRMR 2013), largely due to lower-than-expected annual hydropower availability and slower-than-expected growth in bioenergy generation. However, the renewable capacity expansion was faster than that foreseen in MTRMR 2013, with larger-than-expected deployment of hydropower and solar PV. NOTE - This report includes big hydro power and biofuels (including ethanol) which are still the biggest part of renewable energy. By 2020 though Wind gets to be about 19% of the total renewable and wind will be near 50% of what nuclear energy generation will be. Overall, global renewable electricity generation is expected to reach 7,310 TWh in 2020, representing an annual growth rate of more than 5.4 percent. When compared to the MTRMR 2013 estimates, the IEA notes that the outlook for bioenergy and several other technologies is less optimistic. For that reason the renewable generation forecast for 2018 is 180 TWh lower than in last year’s outlook. In particular, an executive summary of the report points to a slower growth for bioenergy in China. Moving forward bioenergy capacity is expected to expand steadily in Brazil. It is also expected to increase in India and other parts of Asia. Global bioenergy capacity is expected to increase from 88 GW in 2013 to 133 GW in 2020. By 2020, the report predicts there will be 2,555 GW of renewable energy capacity globally. In addition to the 88 GW of bioenergy capacity, this includes 1,360 GW of hydropower capacity, 630 GW of wind capacity, 403 GW of solar PV, 11 GW of solar thermal, 16 GW of geothermal and 1 GW of ocean. Clean energy capacity investment will still rise to $1.61 trillion by 2020. But in its first global investment outlook, the agency predicted a $20 billion drop in yearly new clean energy funding by the decade’s end to $230 billion. The new 2018 estimation is for global renewable energy is 5,505 TWh, compared to last year’s estimate of 6,850 TWh. Growth forecasts were lowered for all renewables, except solar PV, which should benefit from technology cost declines and rapidly scaled-up deployment in non-OECD markets.

In transport, the IEA notes that global biofuels output must triple and advanced biofuels need to increase 22-fold to meet climate goals by 2025. However, policy support is declining due to the need for securing sustainable feedstock sources. The industry is currently in limbo, ahead of EU adoption of a proposal on indirect land use change (ILUC) that may cap conventional biofuels use.

The 2014 IEA world energy forecast including all energy sources.

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Isolated Russia Appears Likely to Agree to Sell China more Advanced Weapon Systems

[The Diplomat] There have been more and more signs that China will become the first foreign customer of Russia’s most advanced anti-missile system, the S-400. China’s People’s Liberation Army already operates the Russian-made S-300 anti-missile system, and Beijing and Moscow have reportedly been negotiating over the S-400 since 2010. These talks have reportedly been slowed by a number of issues, including Russia’s concern that China would reverse-engineer the advanced anti-air and anti-missile system. [South China Morning Post] “The S-400 can engage up to 36 targets simultaneously with as many as 72 missiles at altitudes of five metres to 30 km.” It also has a range of 400 km, roughly four times the range of the S-300. Moreover, SCMP also notes that the S-400 is capable of engaging nearly all conceivable air threats, including, “tactical and strategic aircraft, ballistic missiles and hypersonic targets such as the U.S.’ F-35 fighter jet.” No country would be as threatened by China’s acquisition of the S-400 as Taiwan. As Defense News noted earlier this year, “At present, China’s land-based mobile air defense missile systems, HQ-9 and S-300 can reach only a small sliver of northwestern Taiwan….However, with the planned purchase of the 400-kilometer-range Russian S-400 surface-to-air missile (SAM) system, China will for the first time have complete air defense coverage of Taiwan.”